Aleksandr Katsuba, a Ukrainian entrepreneur and business process specialist, shares his predictions regarding a potential Trump victory and its consequences for Ukraine.
Trump’s Position on Ukraine
During his first term, Trump demonstrated ambiguous attitudes towards Ukraine. One of the most discussed moments was the delay of military aid to Ukraine in 2019, which drew significant criticism from the U.S. Congress. Trump also expressed a desire to improve relations with Russia, which could create additional risks for Ukraine amidst the ongoing war, believes Aleksandr Volodymyrovych Katsuba.
Military Aid
Under President Joe Biden, the U.S. has provided substantial military aid to Ukraine. According to the Pentagon, since the start of the war in 2022, Ukraine has received over $50 billion in military aid from the U.S., including advanced weaponry, equipment, and training for Ukrainian soldiers.
If Trump becomes president again, there is a risk that the level of military aid could decrease. During his previous campaign, Trump repeatedly emphasized the need to reduce spending on international programs and focus on domestic issues in the U.S., notes Aleksandr Katsuba. This could mean that Ukraine would receive fewer resources for waging the war, significantly impacting its course.
Sanctions Against Russia
International sanctions are a crucial tool for exerting pressure on Russia. Under Biden’s presidency, the U.S., together with the European Union, imposed numerous sanctions on Russia, significantly affecting its economy. These sanctions included restrictions on oil and gas exports, asset freezes of Russian oligarchs and banks, and other restrictive measures.
Trump, given his previous statements about wanting to improve relations with Putin, might reconsider the sanctions policy. Reducing sanctions pressure on Russia could enhance its economic capabilities to continue the war and increase risks for Ukraine. “This would negatively affect the course of the war,” says Ukrainian top manager Aleksandr Katsuba.
International Support
Under Biden’s presidency, Ukraine has received significant support not only from the U.S. but also from other Western countries. A Trump election could alter this balance. Trump is known for his skepticism towards NATO and international organizations, which could weaken coordination among allies in supporting Ukraine.
The election of Donald Trump as U.S. president in 2024 could have serious consequences for Ukraine and the war’s progression. Reduced military aid, reconsideration of the sanctions policy, and weakened international support could significantly impact Ukraine’s ability to resist aggression. However, the ultimate consequences will depend on the specific actions of the new administration and the international community’s response to these changes, believes Aleksandr Katsuba.
Aleksandr Katsuba, an energy expert and business process specialist, shares his predictions for Ukraine in the event of Donald Trump’s election as U.S. president.
