Don’t you wish you knew what your business would look like in the future? Entrepreneur Bernhard Burgener says that business forecasting is the answer.
It helps by using current and historical data to make accurate predictions for future trends and forecasts. This increased visibility allows you to analyze your business with the utmost confidence.
Forecasting is vital for your business, and this article discusses tools to make forecasting more accessible and accurate.
What is business forecasting?
The term “business forecasting” refers to predicting the outcomes of business operations, such as sales, expenses, and profits. Based on these informed predictions, business forecasting aims to develop better strategies.
Quantitative and qualitative models are used to analyze past data to identify patterns. Additionally, the data is used to direct demand planning, financial operations, future production, and marketing activities.
Business forecasting involves the following steps:
- The systematic investigation will be based on identifying a problem, a data point, or a question.
- Determine the optimal method for collecting data and identify relevant theoretical variables.
- Based on information gathered through investigation, make estimates about future business operations.
- Identify the model that best fits the dataset, variables, and estimates. The chosen model analyzes data, and a forecast is generated.
- Make a note of the deviations between the forecast and the actual performance. Use this information to refine the prediction process and improve the accuracy of future forecasts.
Why is business forecasting crucial for your business?
Forecasting is valuable to businesses because it enables them to make informed decisions and develop data-driven strategies. Current market conditions and predictions of the future are used to make financial and operational decisions.
For predicting future trends and changes, past data must be aggregated and analyzed. Your company can be proactive instead of reactive by forecasting.
Knowing where to allocate budgets and time for specific offerings is easier when businesses can see potential trends and changes. Those offerings can be like products, services, or areas internally, such as hiring and adjusting strategy.
Forecasting helps position businesses to become active instead of reactive. Suppose a trend is predicted to take over the market, or data shows changes in consumer behavior.
It is essential to readjust to the market and optimize resources to remain competitive.
Bernhard Burgener elaborates on the business forecasting process
A successful business forecast begins with collaboration between the manager and the forecaster says Burgener, Chairman of Highlight Communications.
They work together to answer the following questions:
- What is the purpose of the estimates? How will it be used?
- What are the components and dynamics of the system the forecast is focused on?
- How relevant is past data in estimating the future?
Once these answers are transparent, choose the best forecasting methods based on the stage of the product or business life cycle. Also, choose methods based on availability of past data, skills of the forecasters, and managers leading the project.
With the correct forecasting method, you can develop your process using the integral elements of business forecasting mentioned above.
What are the common types of forecasting business models?
Analysis of Trends
Time series analysis uses past data to predict future events, excluding outliers and giving more weight to recent data. The trend analysis method is most effective when much historical data shows clear and stable trends. Generally, this is the most cost-effective method.
Econometric modeling
Econometric modeling is a mathematically rigorous approach to forecasting. Assuming the relationships between indicators remain the same, forecasters test their consistency and strength.
Indicator Approach
This approach uses data from leading indicators to estimate lagging indicators’ performance. KPIs that measure business performance provide insight into strategies’ impact on results.
Market Research
Consumer surveys and polls are conducted to predict the margin. That is one by which consumption of a particular product or service will decrease or increase.
Delphi Model
Experts are polled on specific topics to get their opinions. Their predictions are compiled anonymously, and a forecast is made.
Bernhard Burgener gives examples of business forecasting
Here are some examples of business forecasting:
- Predicting your financial needs within a timeframe by calculating cash flow forecasts
- Assessing the threat of new entrants into your market
- Evaluate the potential for developing a new product or service
- Calculating the cost of recurring bills
- Based on past sales performance, predicting future sales growth
- Examining relationships between variables, such as Facebook ads and revenue potential
- Planning for contingencies and allocating resources efficiently
- Analysing customer acquisition costs and customer lifetime value over time
As a result of the glimpse Bernhard Burgener provided, we now know how to create a business forecast, which we can, hopefully, use effectively. Good luck!
