Earlier this month on September 5th, 2022, the United Kingdom patiently waited to find out who would succeed Boris Johnson in the run up to becoming the next prime minister.
Bookies favourite Liz Truss beat out the only other candidate, Rishi Sunak, and officially began her ministerial duties the next day after meeting with the late Queen Elizabeth in Balmoral.
Many had expected Truss to win the leadership contest, with Betfair Exchange recording an implied probability of 98.5% for her to become the new leader.
However, just weeks after entering her new role, the hashtag ‘GeneralElectionNow’ was trending on Twitter last week in response to rumours that US President Joe Biden refused to meet Liz Truss while he was in the UK for the funeral of Queen Elizabeth II.
This week MPs have already started to send their letters of no confidence for Liz Truss, as many believe that her latest economic policies she’s brought in to try and ease the cost of living crisis, will lead to our economy crashing.
With the public already taking to Twitter to share their frustrations with the new prime minister over not enough being done to help struggling households, and calling for an early general election, how likely is a snap election?
According to British Gambler, the UK online gambling aggregator, the odds of Liz Truss leaving her position early by 2023 currently stand at about 7/4.
The odds of a general election still taking place in 2024 stand at a 2/7 odds making it a much more likely outcome. Yet, a general election being called in 2022 is at an odds of 26/1 which makes it the least likely to happen and an election taking place by 2023 is at a 9/2 odds at happening. Currently the next general election is scheduled to be held no later than January 2025.
British Gambler have also looked ahead at which MP stands as favourite for the top spot.
They found Labour leader, Keir Starmer, is currently favourite to be the next prime minister with odds of 8/11 odds. Current PM Liz Truss stands at 29/10 odds of keeping her job after the next general election.
Despite recently stepping down some believe that Boris Johnson could make a comeback, as he currently is in third place with 24/1 odds.
Unsuccessful leadership hopeful Rishi Sunak is in joint place with Boris Johnson where he’s been given 24/1 odds.
The next few months could be a critical time for Liz Truss, as she will be battling with the ongoing looming cost of living crisis, which could affect her overall popularity amongst the public and her fellow Conservative MPs, which may put her position in number 10 at risk.
