It’s unlikely that there will be another card more boisterous at this year’s Cheltenham Festival than St. Patrick’s Day, which falls on the third day of the meeting. With racegoers back in attendance for the first time since 2020, those from the Emerald Isles will be flocking across the Irish Sea to the Cotswolds in their thousandson March 17th — enjoying a pint of the black stuff in the Guinness Village and having a bet on Cheltenham races.
However, while Allaho looks like a cert in the Ryanair Chase — the first of St. Paddy’s Day’s two feature races — the gruelling Paddy Power Stayers’ Hurdle isn’t looking as easy to call. There’s very little to separate the four front-runners in the ante-post market for the lengthy three-mile contest, while there’s no real form to go by either — with Flooring Porter, Klassical Dream, Thyme Hill and Champ all failing to win last time out.
So, in a bid to help make your selection for the Festival’sthird championship race that bit easier, let’s take a look at some of the key trends for the Paddy Power Stayers’ Hurdle. Read on to find out more!
Age
Age is something you need to consider when looking at every race at the meeting, with each contest usually having a prime age bracket. For the Stayers’ Hurdle, it’s six to eight-year-olds who tend to rule the roost — with 10 of the last 12 winners in that group. Only 2012 and 2013 winners Big Bucks and Solwhit have bucked that trend, both winning as nine-year-olds. That rules out 10-year-old Champ from helping Britain’s chances in the Prestbury Cup betting 2022, but keeps the rest of the favourites firmly in the mix.
Odds
Bad news for defending champion Flooring Porter though, only five of the last 12 favourites have won the Stayers’ Hurdle — something he helped dwindle further when he won from 12/1 last year.
Half of the last dozen winners were in the top three of the betting, so there’s still hope for Klassical Dream and Thyme Hill — even if four of the last five winners have been from double-figure odds. Perhaps 10/1 shots Royal Kahala and Sporting John, who are both seven years old, could be ready to throw a spanner in the works?
Form
Eight of the last 12 Stayers’ Hurdle champions won on their final outing before Cheltenham, which is a trend that won’t help you if you want to pick one of the favourites. However, there is an interesting stat that will pull Paisley Park, a general 7/1 chance into the mix.
Five of the last 12 winners ran in the Cleeve Hurdle at Cheltenham as their final preparation for the three-mile contest, with three going on to win the Stayers’ Hurdle. The Emma Lavelle-trained 10-year-old won that race last time out, but his age doesn’t match the grade.
Other things to consider
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We’re going to go out on a limb here and pick 10/1 chance Sporting John as our Stayers’ Hurdle winner. As already mentioned, he fits the billing as a seven-year-old, while his longer odds are out there with some of the more recent winners.
However, he’s going into this race on the back of a victory in a three-mile, one-furlong Handicap Hurdle at Warwick and he has four previous outings at Cheltenham — two of which were earlier this season, including a victory over three miles in the Listed Paddy Power Games Handicap Hurdle at the November Meeting. So, he has won over the required distance twice this season already.
He’s just short of eight outings over hurdles (7), but he does boast five victories from those attempts —therefore, we’ll let that slide. Plus, he boasts a Grade 1 triumph — albeit in a Novices’ Chase at Sandown last season. If Philip Hobbs does opt for this race over the Pertemps Network Final, then Sporting John is certainly on to watch.
