THE Conservative Party is set to lose HALF of its MPs at the next election based on current opinion polling, according to one of the country’s most respected pollsters.
And Sir John Curtice says the seats of Jeremy Hunt, Dominic Raab and Iain Duncan Smith appear particularly precarious.
He believes Mr Raab and Mr Duncan Smith face a tougher fight than Boris Johnson to cling on.
Speaking exclusively to Philp Davies and Esther McVey on GB News, Mr Curtice said: “The Conservative Party, at the moment, on current polls would indeed lose half of all its MPs.
Interestingly, out of the 15 or so MPs who have said that they’re going to stand down, seven are currently in constituencies which, given the current polls, might well be lost. It’s around a half and is actually no higher than the total proportion of all the Conservative MPs who are now likely to be at risk.”
Asked about the chances of Boris Johnson holding on to his seat, he said: “Well, it’s better than some of those currently sitting in Cabinet or indeed of at least one other previous leader of the party.
“Iain Duncan Smith, for example, is sitting on 3% majority. He looks extremely vulnerable. Dominic Raab, in Esher and Walton, a 4% majority albeit to the Lib Dems looks pretty vulnerable.
“In comparison with them, Boris Johnson with its 15% majority looks at least to have a fighting chance. But that is if and only if the Conservatives stage at least some kind of recovery in the polls not necessarily back to the level where they would still be in office but at least back to the level where they would not be suffering a decimation.
He told GB News: “So far as Boris Johnson individually is concerned…there is no doubt he’s vulnerable. Also by the way, equally vulnerable is Jeremy Hunt, the Chancellor in the south-west.
“He’s sitting on a very similar majority of around 15% and so he might survive if things improve, but at the moment life doesn’t look too comfortable for him either.”
Asked about the probability of Boris Johnson returning as Tory leader, Sir John said: “I think it is pretty close to zero.
“You shouldn’t underestimate the damage that was done to his personal reputation by the fact that a long-standing feature of Mr Johnson is a relatively loose relationship with the truth.
“It was indeed in the end the issue that particularly brought him down.”
Sir John’s comments came after the publication of the latest weekly People’s Poll for GB News poll which puts Labour on 47% of the national vote, the Conservative Party down to 20%, the Liberal Democrats on 8%, the Greens on 6% and Reform UK on 9%. This represents a one-point fall for Conservatives and a one-point jump for Labour from last week, increasing the gap between the two parties to 27 points.
