Recent tournament performance of England on the pitch has been good. A World Cup semi-final in 2018, a Euro 2020 final, a quarter-final at the World Cup in 2022 and a European Championship final again in 2024, these are all a reflection of a side that made it regularly to the latter stages.
However, outcomes alone do not matter entirely for bettors. England are a lot more mixed when analysing their against the spread (ATS) performance based on 90-minute results graded from pre-match Asian Handicap lines.
What does “against the spread” mean in football (soccer)?
The “spread” in football betting is usually a reference to the Asian handicap betting market.
When England are priced at -1.25, they will usually have to win by 2 goals to completely cover. At -0.75, a one-goal win is only a partial win. At -0.25, a draw produces a half loss. At 0.00 (draw-no-bet) the stake is refunded in the event of a draw and fails to cover in the event of defeat.
In the case of tournament football, when tension is high and margins tight, such distinctions are important. For soccer betting fans, England’s 2026 World Cup qualification path was a relatively easy one, and should not be a basis for some markets.
Euro 2024: Long run, poor ATS return
England reached the final of Euro 2024 in Germany, but their overall performance was poor.
Out of the Lions’ 7 matches, they covered the handicap only once.
In the group stage against Serbia, they were expected to win with a 1.25 goal margin, but ended up winning 1-0. The tight margin caused a non-cover. Against Denmark, they were priced at approximately -0.75 in a 1-1 draw, which was yet another ATS defeat.
Against Slovakia (Round of 16), England trailed 1-0 at 90 minutes before Bellingham equalised in extra time. For ATS purposes (90 minute result only), this was a non-cover.
In the knockouts, England were about -1.25 against Slovakia (Round of 16). After 90 minutes, the scores were level, another ATS loss. Again, favourites in the quarter finals against Switzerland (around -0.50), England drew 1-1 in regulation (winning on penalties), failing to cover.
In the semi-final against the Netherlands, England were slight favourites, a match they won 2-1 inside 90 minutes. This was their only ATS win at the tournament. In the final versus Spain, who were around pick’em or draw no bet, England fell short 2-1 and failed to cover the spread.
Euro 2024 ATS record (90 minutes): 1 cover and 6 non covers
England marched on but seldom won convincingly in the pattern. Gareth Southgate’s side prioritised control, structure and defensive discipline, an approach that guaranteed survival in knockout football, but was of little value to handicap tickets.
Improved ATS performance in World Cup 2022
The World Cup 2022 Qatar witnessed a strong spread response for England, with much of this attributed to the strong group-stage performance.
They suffered an ATS loss against the USA after a 0-0 draw as -1.25 favourites, but easily covered the handicap against Iran 6-2, heading into the clash as 1.50 favourites. They then recorded a 3-0 win against Wales, again winning as -1.25 favourites.
In the knockout rounds, England beat Senegal 3-0 as roughly -1.00 favourites and led to another ATS success. Their campaign ended with a 2-1 defeat to France in the quarter-final, where they were slight underdogs or little plus handicap side and as such an ATS defeat.
World Cup 2022 ATS record (90 minutes): 3 covers & 2 non covers
England were able to generate multi-goal victories against teams of clearly lower pedigree, such as Iran, Wales and Senegal. Against stronger or equally matched opposition such as the USA and France, covering became much more difficult.
Wider Perspective
Comparing the two last major tournaments gives a better picture.
World Cup 2022: 3-2 ATS
Euro 2024: 1-6 ATS
Combined: 4 covers and 8 non-covers
Overall, England have tended to underperform from market expectations when installed as favourites. Tournament football thus inherently becomes more conservative as the stakes increase, and even the best teams are conservative in their approach rather than expansive. Tactical conservatism under Southgate strengthened that tendency in England.
The verdict and lesson for bettors
A few key lessons emerge. England are very poor at justifying a big handicap in a tournament context especially when priced at -1.25 or higher. Knockout matches often end as either one goal wins or draws after 90 minutes so it is risky to lay big spreads.
England have in general been more dependable against the spread at nearer even money than heavy favorites. Importantly, in tournament football, advancement does not necessarily mean covering the handicap.
England’s recent record in the tournament has been a team that could easily reach finals and play with the best in Europe and the world.
From a spread perspective, however, they have been patchy, particularly at Euro 2024, where comfortable wins were in short supply. To punters, the difference is obvious: backing England to win is not the same as backing England to win by margin. In the context of tournament football, especially of the conservative tactical variety, it is often the more difficult result to cover the handicap.
