A HUGE assault by Russian forces in eastern Ukraine is likely to be put on hold for a week due to bad weather, continued resistance in Mariupol and smart use of intelligence by Ukrainian troops.
That’s the view of Major General Chip Chapman, the former head of counter-terrorism at the Ministry of Defence, who said Russian forces are still preparing for a major push in the east in an effort to avoid past mistakes.
He also said that Ukrainian forces are frustrating Russian preparations by acting quickly on intelligence information.
Major General Chapman told GB News: “At the moment, it’s really preparation of the battlefield, and that is the Russians are doing both sustaining operations to see that they don’t make the mistakes logistically that they did in the thunder run to Kyiv.
“They’re also trying to do the combat support, using the artillery as ‘the god of war’, to prepare the manoeuvre forces to go in.
“I think there won’t be any decisive manoeuvre for a considerable length of time, at least over week.”
He made his comments during an interview today with Alastair Stewart on GB News.
Major General Chapman said resistance in Mariupol and bad weather is conspiring to delay new Russian incursions in the east.
“Firstly, because Mariupol hasn’t fallen, and that would provide the southern shoulder, if they were to try and do an envelopment operation, and secondly because the weather is going to be terrible for the next ten days,” he said.
“So close air support can’t really go in in the quantity that they would like, and it will degrade the effectiveness of their artillery.
“So I don’t think the Russians are in a position to bring large manoeuvre forces to bear with the mass that they would want, the concentration of force for anything to be decisive in the short term.”
He agreed with Alastair Stewart that the Ukrainians seem to be well informed about what the Russians are planning.
“Well, I think that is one of the variables, intelligence will be a big thing now.
“We talk about a 300 mile front. People don’t know how big that is, that is Land’s End to London, so the notion that there’s artillery pounding a line from Land’s End to London is just not credible.
“You can’t be strong everywhere and you’ll end up being weak everywhere if you try to do that.
“It is the use of intelligence, so that the Ukrainians can go faster around what we call an OODA loop – that’s Observe Orient, Decide and Act – which will be decisive in how you move either reserves around or have the ability to use your ISTAR [intelligence].
“That’s the surveillance from high above to bring things like switchblade killer drones and things like that to bear and the Ukrainians seem to have gone around that intelligence cycle far faster than the Russians, and I think a lot of that has to do to with US help.”
