THE Tory leadership race could be much closer than polls have suggested, according to the leading pollster Sir John Curtice.
Asked if he agreed with polls showing that Liz Truss is well ahead, he told GB News: “Not entirely. We have to bear in mind that since Tory MPs decided that this was the contest between Rishi Sunak and Liz Truss, we have had one, I repeat one, opinion poll of the people who will actually have a vote, that is conservative members.
“That poll put Liz Truss well ahead, once you took out the one in five or so who did not express a view, she was on 62%, way ahead of the 50% that’s required.
“But that poll is now nearly a fortnight old. We’ve had a few other straws in the wind about the views of Tory members, one which came up yesterday in the Sunday Telegraph, which was a poll of Conservative councillors who of course, are one section of the membership.
“That’s a particular section membership but according to that poll, Liz Truss 31%, Rishi Sunak 29%, over 30% said they didn’t know.”
Speaking to Darren McCaffrey on GB News, he said: “I just simply say, we perhaps don’t know quite as much as everybody is confidently asserting, given particularly that the poll is now nearly two weeks old.
“Liz Truss is certainly the favourite and I can certainly point you to some of the patterns in the polling about who backs Liz Truss as opposed to Rishi Sunak, such as, for example, the fact that Liz Truss is more popular amongst the leave voters, Rishi Sunak among the remain voters, but of course there are far more leave voters than remain voters amongst Conservatives.
Sir John said: “Equally interestingly, according to the poll of Tory councillors yesterday, people who voted for Jeremy Hunt three years ago have Rishi Sukuk ahead, whereas those who voted for Boris Johnson three years ago have Liz Truss ahead.
“The Boris Johnson camp is a much bigger one so certainly when we look at the patterns in some of the voting it certainly suggests that Liz Truss ought to be ahead.
“In a race which certainly had seen some fairly radical and bold proposals made by both candidates, most of whom have been pretty much attacking each other pretty solidly over the last two weeks, we certainly don’t know what impact if any it had on the Tory membership as a whole.”
Asked if Mr Sunak’s claim to be the only candidate that could win a general election against Labour, Sir John. said: “The truth is that either camp can point to decisive polling evidence that their candidate will be more successful and can turn Conservative fortunes around…
“Another poll that came up yesterday…had an eight point Labour lead. According to this poll, ask people how they would have voted if Liz Truss was leader, well it’s a 7-point lead, with Rishi Sunak it’s a 6-point lead.
“These are very small differences and it’s pretty consistent with other polling. In truth, I don’t think whoever they choose, Tory members should assume that the arrival of either Rishi Sunak or Liz Truss in 10 Downing Street on 6 September is going to result in a rapid improvement in the Conservative Party’s fortunes.”
