Londoners think a no-deal Brexit is more likely than meeting ‘the one’

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Brexit series for FT.

New research by Onlinecasinos.co.uk reveals how good Brits are at ranking the likelihood of various events happening; from a no-deal Brexit to shark attacks, to an asteroid hitting the earth.

· Londoners think both a no-deal Brexit and Prince Harry and Meghan Markle staying together are more likely than meeting ‘the one’

· Londoners think winning Blackjack in Las Vegas is more likely than a second in/out referendum

· Londoners think you’re more likely to own property in London than the UK to agree on a trade deal with the USA

· Brits think you’re more likely to die in a plane crash than be killed by a shark – in fact, it’s the other way round!

Onlinecasinos.co.uk surveyed 1000 Brits to see the difference between people’s perceptions and the reality of various scenarios occurring, revealing how good we actually are at assessing the odds of certain events happening.

When it comes to calculating the risk of life-threatening scenarios, it seems our perception doesn’t match up to reality. Brits think you’re more likely to die in a plane crash than be killed by a shark, when in fact, it’s the other way around. The likelihood of dying in a plane crash is extremely slim, with the odds being 1 in 11,000,000, whilst the odds of being killed by a shark, although still unlikely, are 1 in 3.7 million. The results also showed that Brits think you’re more likely to be struck by lightning than have identical twins. According to the BMJ, the chances of being struck by lightning are 1 in 10,000,000, whilst the likelihood of having identical twins is 1 in 250.

When it comes to a trade deal being agreed with the USA, Londoners believe all of the following scenarios are more likely…

· Owning property in London

· Becoming a CEO

· Marrying a billionaire

· Winning at Craps in Las Vegas

· Winning at Slots in Las Vegas

Intriguingly, Londoners think the chances of buying a house in the next 10 years is more likely than a second in/out EU referendum to take place before 2020, whilst Brits thought the chances of owning a robot were the same as a referendum.

The survey results also showed that Londoners think a no-deal Brexit and winning at Roulette in Las Vegas are both more likely than meeting ‘the one’ or getting a divorce. According to researchers from the University of Bath, the chances of meeting ‘the one’ are 1 in 562 whilst the chances of winning Roulette in Las Vegas are 1 in 37.